Biden vs Trump Rematch: Ground Hog Day!

8 min read

Hi everyone, I’m Rick Barron, your host, and welcome to my podcast, That’s Life, I Swear

Is it going to be Ground Hog Day come November of 2024? Are we really seeing a potential rematch with President Biden and ‘My Face is Orange, And Yours Is Not’ Trump? 

Let’s jump into this.

Thanks, but no thanks are how the American public sees the potential final candidates in the upcoming 2024 Presidential election. As President Biden announced his reelection campaign on April 27th of this year, he finds himself extremely vulnerable. A recent NBC News polling calls out unfavorable numbers for the President. His disapproval rating is at 54% while 70% of Americans say they don’t want him to run again. With those numbers, his campaign should be politically dead-on-arrival.

Biden and Trump-rematch. Courtesy of: Getty Images

But here’s the problem for Republicans: Sixty percent of voters also don’t want Donald Trump to run again. When asked amongst GOP voters, the data reflects that 63% support Trump and see that the recent court indictments happening and coming up, are all politically motivated, of course they are. That said, those who still can’t think, believe they must support Trump.

Americans are sending a clear message to both parties: They want someone new to choose from in 2024. The various data poll collections sum it up very well, the public does not want a Biden-Trump rematch.

However, it looks increasingly likely the country will get precisely just that.

Why does this matter?

One possible factor behind this sentiment is a desire for fresh leadership and new ideas. Biden and Trump are both well-known political figures who have been in the public eye for many years. Some voters feel that it is time for a change and that the country would benefit from having someone new in the Oval Office.

Biden-Trump cartoon. Courtesy of: Las Vegas Review Journal

Another possible factor is the contentious nature of the 2020 presidential election. The race was marked by allegations of voter fraud and political polarization, and some voters may be looking for a more unifying figure to lead the country in the future.

Things to know

·       Age is a factor that comes up as a reason not to vote for either candidate. Come inauguration day, Trump would be 78, and Biden would be 82

·       Fear that if Biden were re-elected, his health would be of high concern, which means there’s a significant possibility that Vice President Kamala Harris will become president; something people don’t want

·       American public want a change in leadership and someone younger, bring a fresh perspective to the table 

·       Some fear that if Trump were elected, his term in office would be based on nothing but revenge against those who opposed him. In short, turn on the ‘You Don’t Like Me’ chaos machine again

Another takeaway here is that the abortion issue hasn’t gone away. Recently the Supreme court upheld the Food and Drug Administration regulations that permit easy access to the abortion drug mifepristone…for now.

This recent approval of the drug has energizing voters. That said another NBC News poll asked peoples views on abortion, and the results were quite clear:

·       58% say abortion access should be legal

·       38% say abortion access should be illegal

Now get this one. Among the 43% who said abortion is the single issue that’s driving them to the polls, they believe that abortion access should be legal by a 65% to 34% margin. That said the energy of the abortion issue is clearly on the Democratic side.

So, what happens if voters are faced with Ground Hog Day?

Trump is effectively Biden’s “get out of jail free” card — the former president is the one Republican candidate who can save Biden from the political consequences that have occurred during this term, such as:

·       the worst inflation in 40 years, to the worst decline in real wages in four decades,

·       the highest gas prices ever recorded in the United States, 

·       the biggest annual rise in food prices since 1979, 

·       the worst labor shortages in American history 

·       …and the worst crime wave since the 1990s.

Biden Age Poll. Courtesy of: Fox News

To be fair, many of the consequences President Biden has dealt with are ramifications stemming from COIVD 19. Trump would’ve had to deal with the same problems, albeit knowing the results might be different with his past track record. Do the math.

Some believe Biden’s record should doom any president’s chances of winning re-election. However, if Trump is the Republican nominee, Biden likely gets away with it. By contrast, if Republicans nominate someone else — almost anyone else — then the GOP can turn Biden’s 54% disapproval rating into an albatross around his neck.

It shouldn’t take another election loss for Republicans to understand this. Swing voters have already sent this message to the GOP — twice! In 2020, despite a record 56% of registered voters telling Gallup that they were better off under Trump than they had been four years earlier, Trump lost. Why, because he alienated too many people with his juvenile behavior. Voters liked Trump’s policies, but they did not like him.

In 2022, Biden turned in nearly the best first midterm performance of any president since John F. Kennedy by turning the ‘The Big Red Wave’ into a pink puddle.

Democrats didn’t do so well because voters approved of Biden; it was because they disapproved of Trump’s handpicked House and Senate candidates, who lost many races that were frankly, winnable.

Face it, Trump is political kryptonite for the GOP?

That’s the bad news for the Republicans. Now, there is some good news: 

First, while 41% of respondents in the NBC News poll say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for Biden, 47% say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for the Republican nominee — which means the election is highly winnable.

Second, while nearly 70% of Republican primary voters say they stand behind Trump, even while dealing with current and future indictments, only 46% in that same poll say that if the primary were held today, they would vote for Trump. A majority of Republicans today say they want someone else.

Third, while clear majorities don’t want either Trump or Biden, Democrats are headed to nominate Biden. That means, if Republicans nominate someone other than Trump, they have a viable shot at winning.

So, Republicans have a choice: Pick a candidate without Trump’s baggage who can make Biden own his 54% disapproval rating. Or tattoo on their forehead, “Yes, I Voted for Stupid, A Third Time.”  

What can we learn from this story? What’s the take away

Regardless of the reasons behind the public’s sentiment, if the American people do not want either Biden or Trump to run again in 2024, it could have significant implications for the United States government as a whole. 

A lack of enthusiasm for either candidate could lead to lower voter turnout, which could ultimately impact the outcome of the election. 

It could signal a shift in the political landscape, with voters looking for alternative candidates who can bring a fresh perspective to the table. 

Ultimately, the American public will have to weigh the pros and cons of each candidate and decide who they believe is best suited to lead the country in the years ahead. 

There is one more thing to consider. With both sides not wanting either Biden or Trump, this could be that golden opportunity for an independent to jump in the race…and win. Think about it. 

Well, there you go. That's life, I swear.

For further information regarding the material covered in this episode, I invite you to visit my website, which you can find on either Apple Podcasts/iTunes or Google Podcasts, for show notes, movie information clips, and the episode transcript. 

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