China, Taiwan and the B-21 Stealth Fighter

5 min read

Hi, I’m Rick Barron, your host, and welcome to That’s Life, I Swear

The year 2022 ended with the Ukraine War still ongoing. It was a war started by Vladimir Putin to reestablish the Russian empire that once was. As we begin 2023, we’re facing a similar dictator’s dream on the other side of the world. I’m talking about China wanting Taiwan back. China says there are "profound historical and cultural ties" with Taiwan, which date back to around 230 AD. Let there be no doubt, for China, it's an "indisputable fact" that Taiwan is part of China.

Let’s jump into this 

It’s no longer a question of ‘if’ but when China invades Taiwan. China hasn’t been subtle about its preparation for pulling Taiwan back under its rule. They’ve been building up their military, air force, and navy for several years and converting small islands to expand its diplomatic and military profile in the Pacific. This is no mirage but reality.

What’s behind China’s ongoing reasoning to invade Taiwan? What’s the significance of invading and starting a war, and God forbid, kicking off World War III?

China has been claiming sovereignty over Taiwan, which lies approximately 110 miles across the Taiwan Strait.  To put a finer point on it, China demands reunification with the island nation of 24 million people. 

Mao Zedong. Courtesy of: How Stuff Works

There’s a history between these two countries starting with the Chinese civil war in 1949. It was soon after Mao Zedong's Red Army defeated the forces of the Chinese nationalist under Chiang Kai-shek, that they escaped to Taiwan and set up an authoritarian government there.

Chiang Kai-shek. Courtesy of: Foreign Affairs

Fast forward to 1975. Chiang Kai-shek has died, and the authoritarian government that once was had been replaced with a democratic type of government led by President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. With a change towards democracy, it becomes even more adamant that Taiwan’s citizens do not want to come under Beijing's repressive rule.

As Taiwan continues enjoying their new journey towards democracy, Chinese President Xi Jinping, has a whole different view on Taiwan and their democracy.

The President of China today looks at Taiwan with a different lens, just as he saw Hong Kong; a part of China taken from Western powers. 

Xi Jinping is taking a view much like Vladimir Putin is with Ukraine. He seeks to rejuvenate China to a world leading status that’s unequal. With that goal in mind, he believes China must reclaim the territory it lost in the 19th and 20th centuries.

Those who deeply understand Xi’s leadership sense that he may want to invade soon. The window of opportunity could be closing as President Biden has pledged that the United States will come to Taiwan’s aid. What concerns the Chinese President, is the U.S. helping arm Taiwan’s defenses. Anything that would justify China to take action is all they’re looking for to give them cause to make their move. 

What are the warning signs? Xi is pushing his persuasive speaking with his people about "national unification," and the tone is very harsh. China has recently ratcheted up military activity with increased patrols in the Taiwan Strait and teasing Taiwan with its constant flying intrusions into its airspace. To make their point that any intimidation would not be tolerated, China test-fired 11 ballistic missiles into waters surrounding Taiwan and conducted a large-scale naval exercise to simulate a blockade and invasion soon after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) paid a visit to Taiwan. Lot of wasted energy over someone wanted to stop by to say hi.

Estimated Global Nuclear Warhead Inventories. Courtesy of: FAS

China’s nuclear build up has caught the eye of the Pentagon. A recent security report indicated that China would have approximately 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035. They have 350 today. Do some quick math and that’s only 12 years away. So that means adding about 96 new war heads per year until 2035. 

China conducted a new hypersonic missile test in 2021, something I know we don’t have yet, nor a defense against it. 

While we don’t want to get dragged too deep into a war with Putin, the Biden administration sees China as the greater risk. 

Military officials have tossed around potential years such as 2024 or 2027, that China may come crashing the front door of Taiwan. 

In October of 2022, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that China is not liking how Taiwan is being provided military assets to defend itself against them. Xi is determined to pursue reunification on a much faster pace. 

Should China invade Taiwan, how might that unfold? 

Military experts put their thoughts on the whiteboard and see it as something like this:

1.     China would start with cyber warfare and missile attacks on any and all military infrastructure. 

2.     China's navy, which by the way rivals the U.S.'s in strength and only getting stronger, would send an armada across the strait to mount a huge amphibious assault. However, most of Taiwan's shoreline is unsuitable for ships to dock and unload personnel and equipment, and a 245-mile-long mountain range from the nation's northern tip to southern end would be a natural obstacle to invading troops. 

3.     A more prudent option, and perhaps prevent an all-out war, is a naval blockade, cutting the island off from food and energy imports. Give it two weeks and Taiwan would start going dark, as shared by Richard Chen, Taiwan's former deputy defense minister. "No electricity, no phones, no internet, and people would start to go hungry." That type of scenario could then lead to the U.S. and other Western nations to cut off trade with China, which imports more food than any other country to feed its 1.4 billion people.

Can Taiwan defend itself? Is it even in a position to make a fight of it?

To cut to the chase, no. Taiwan has about 200,000 active-duty soldiers, airmen, and sailors, compared with China’s estimated 2 million. If needed, Taiwan could call in its 400,000 reservists.

So at full strength that would make it 3 to 1, still in China’s favor. 

While it sounds encouraging, time is against them. They have neither the weapons nor the proper training to turn the reservists into effective fighting forces. The Taiwan government approved $8 billion in emergency defense spending. It also purchased $14 billion of military hardware from the U.S. However, nothing has been delivered due to the Ukraine war. Currently, the U.S. is having a difficult time replacing the inventory in its warehouses. 

B-21. Courtesy of: Time

One ace in the hole that could help Taiwan, should the situation become dire is the new B-21 Stealth Fighter, which has been looked at as America’s China-deterrence bomber. 

Now, these planes come at a high price, like $750 million apiece. The B-21 will carry conventional nuclear arms, and could eventually fly without a pilot, as per Northrop Grumman. This all sounds good, but unfortunately the B-21’s first flight isn’t scheduled until sometime in 2023!  

Would the U.S. get involved if Taiwan is attacked?

Yes. Biden has strongly implied that the U.S. would help defend the island against an attack. When U.S. military officers stage war games to act out the various scenarios of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, they usually end badly for the U.S. In extreme scenarios, the U.S. attacks mainland China and China then attacks Hawaii and Alaska. In virtually all scenarios, a U.S.-China war over Taiwan would devastate both sides and the world.  When looking at the various simulations, the results ended up the same. Simply put, it would be a horrific bloody mess for both sides. 

What can we learn from this story? What’s the take away

An all-out war would be deadly and present a different world in the blink of an eye. 

From an economic viewpoint, Taiwan provides roughly 70 percent of the global supply of advanced semiconductors chips that power smartphones, cars, and computers. Over the past two decades, the U.S. has spent about $300 billion on Taiwanese chips. Even China relies on them and has neither the expertise or the infrastructure to produce its own. 

Should China occupy Taiwan, they would need Western raw materials and equipment imports to keep chip production running. Moreover, disruptions to shipping lanes in the Western Pacific, used by about one-third of the world's sea traffic, could start a global economic crisis that would make the COVID supply chain problems look rather dull.

So, thousands of lives lost, supply chain issues that would be an ultimate nightmare, and the potential for the unthinkable; World War III. 

And why? Because of stupid pride. For an island that’s almost the size of Israel, we could see a catastrophe bring havoc to the world. I don’t know, but I think we have better things to address. 

Nationalism, overconfidence, fear, and stupidity are powerful forces in global affairs. But at the moment, the massive risk of China invading Taiwan and the assumption that the island can still be strong-armed into submission will hopefully work against the likelihood of war.

Fingers crossed.

Well, there you go. That's life, I swear.

For further information regarding the material covered in this episode, I invite you to visit my website, that you can find on either Apple Podcasts/iTunes or Google Podcasts, for show notes calling out key pieces of content mentioned and the episode transcript.

As always, I thank you for listening. 

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