It’s The Little Things: Indie Power - Shaping the Presidential 2024 Race

4 min read

Buckle up, folks, because the 2024 election is shaping up to be a wild ride. Forget "choose your fighter," this year it's "choose your poison" with Biden and Trump leading the way, but nobody actually wants either one.  But wait, there's more! Enter the "double haters," those fed-up folks yearning for something...different. 

Welcome to That's Life, I Swear. This podcast is about life's happenings in this world that conjure up such words as intriguing, frightening, life-changing, inspiring, and more. I'm Rick Barron your host. 

There’s a saying: ‘It’s the little things that matter’

Occasionally, I stumble upon captivating news snippets, charming anecdotes, or lesser-known historical gems as I dive into my research for upcoming episodes. Despite their brevity, these nuggets of information convey meaningful messages about life. 

I strongly believe in the significance of appreciating the small things, and I'm excited to periodically share these brief segments with you. My hope is that you'll glean something valuable from each episode, no matter how modest it may be.

That said, here's the rest of this story

So, here’s the dilemma. Just like it was in 2016 and 2020, voters are throwing shade at our main stars, leaving a wide-open door for third-party contenders. From anti-vaxx crusader Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to socialist scholar Cornel West, the options are as diverse as a dollar menu at a fusion food court. And then there's No Labels, this mysterious "moderate mashup" promising a bipartisan dream team.

You may ask, what’s the threat? While both parties sweat the impact of these outsiders, it's Biden who feels the heat most. Remember 2000's Al Gore? Third-party Ralph Nader stole his Florida victory by a hair's breadth. No one wants a repeat of that cliffhanger.

Historically, no third-party candidate has ever won a presidential election, but several have succeeded in tipping the balance. Here’s a few examples:

1. In 1912, the political landscape shifted as Theodore Roosevelt, once a Republican, ran as the Progressive Party candidate, dividing the GOP vote and handing the White House to Democrat Woodrow Wilson.
    
2. Fast forward to 2000, where Democrat Al Gore faced a tight race in Florida, losing by 537 votes. This narrow margin was influenced, some argue, by Green candidate Ralph Nader, who garnered over 97,000 votes in the state of Florida.
    
3. Then, in the pivotal year of 2016, Hillary Clinton experienced setbacks in key states. The votes Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, collected in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania played a role, with Clinton falling short by a margin smaller than Jill Stein's tally in those key states.

A snapshot of the current political landscape reveals intriguing numbers. Polls suggest that third-party candidates like Kennedy are gaining traction. However, the focus shifts to the battleground states, where a few percentage points can decide the entire election. No Labels, with its well-funded approach, poses a particular concern for Democratic strategists.

As mentioned, forget national polls, the real fight happens in the "battleground states" – those swing voters who hold the election hostage. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan... you get the picture. Can No Labels snag ballot access in these crucial zones? Their war chest and early wins suggest yes. Could Kennedy or West pull off the same feat? The jury's still out.

The stakes are pretty high. If any of these contenders make it onto the ballot, Biden's "Trump vs. You" strategy crumbles. Voters may see third-party picks as a way to avoid both nightmares, leaving Biden in the dust. That's why Democrats scramble to discredit No Labels, calling them "Trump spoilers" in disguise.

As the election narrative unfolds over the coming months before the American people go to the polls, the spotlight turns to the potential burden on President Biden. 

No Labels Party. Courtesy: of The Law Makers Organization

Many Democratic strategists express significant concerns about No Labels, a well-financed organization with a head start in securing ballot access across all 50 states. Currently, No Labels has successfully gained ballot access in 14 states, including crucial battlegrounds such as Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. The Green Party, led by Jill Stein, is anticipated to secure ballot access in most states as well.

Kennedy, on the other hand, has qualified only in Utah, while West's prospects remain uncertain. There is ambiguity surrounding whether West has the necessary funding and organization to launch a nationwide ballot-access initiative.

In a recent development, Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, issued a cautionary message to Democratic donors advising them to avoid supporting No Labels. Matt Bennett, Executive Vice President of Third Way, conveyed in an email that according to their polling, No Labels would likely lose and act as a spoiler for Trump. No Labels disputes this claim, asserting that their own polling indicates a potential victory in states with 34% or more of the vote, enough to secure an electoral college majority. However, political experts view these simulations as unlikely.

The decision of whether No Labels will run a ticket at all remains unclear, with the group initially planning a convention this summer but subsequently canceling it. Nevertheless, the presence of any third-party candidates on the ballot in battleground states could pose an additional challenge for Biden.

Typically, when a president seeks a second term, the election becomes a referendum on their record. Biden aims to shift this narrative by turning the election into a referendum on Trump. The entry of third-party candidates, however, could disrupt this strategy by providing anti-Trump voters an alternative route.

This implies that Biden cannot solely rely on stoking fears of his predecessor's return. Instead, he must build a compelling case that the third-party option is merely another way of electing Trump.

Gov. Chris Christie. Courtesy of: Getty Images

On a side note, Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie announced on Jan. 10th, that he was ending his campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Apparently, it didn’t take long for the rumors to begin. 

In the pursuit of forming a bipartisan, third-party presidential ticket for the 2024 elections, No Labels, the political organization, has actively reached out to associates of Chris Christie to gauge his potential interest in joining their ticket. 

Maria Comella, Christie's campaign manager, stated that neither the governor nor anyone from the campaign has engaged in conversations with No Labels. When asked about Christie's willingness to consider the idea, Comella mentioned that she had not discussed it with him, emphasizing Christie's commitment that he was “not going away.”

A source familiar with the situation highlighted Christie's widespread name recognition, track record, and willingness to confront former President Donald Trump. The source emphasized the need for someone unafraid to take decisive action, stating that No Labels requires a candidate who is willing to take on Trump.

So, what’s the verdict? Will 2024 be a two-horse race or a chaotic six-way brawl? Will third-party picks be saviors or spoilers? The political circus is just getting warmed up. 

What can we learn from this story? What's the takeaway?

When a president runs for a second term, the election is normally a referendum on his record. Biden hopes to flip that script and win by turning the election into a referendum on Trump. Third-party candidates could disrupt that by offering anti-Trump voters an escape route. 

Well, there you go, my friends; that's life, I swear

For further information regarding the material covered in this episode, I invite you to visit my website, which you can find on either Apple Podcasts/iTunes or Google Podcasts, for show notes calling out key pieces of content mentioned and the episode transcript.

As always, I thank you for listening and your interest. 

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