Three Year's Later, UK Is Now Looking At Brexit With ‘Bregret’

5 min read

Hi everyone, I’m Rick Barron, your host, and welcome to my podcast, That’s Life, I Swear

On January 31, 2023, the third anniversary of the United Kingdom’s decision to vote to leave the European Union came and went. There were no parades or popping of champagne corks to celebrate the event. Why?

Let’s jump into this 

The United Kingdom is still in a bit of a problem. Since they departed the EU, Britian’s transition to being independent of the EU has been less than stellar. Let me provide some context.

UK votes to leave Brexit. Courtesy of: World Economic Forum

What was Brexit all about? 

Brexit refers to the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union. The vote to leave the EU was held in a nationwide referendum in June of 2016, with 51.9% of voters choosing to leave the bloc. The UK officially left the EU on January 31st, 2020 and the transition period ended on December 31st, 2020. Brexit has resulted in significant changes to trade, immigration, and other policies between the UK and EU.

Why did the United Kingdom want to leave Brexit?

The UK voted to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum for a variety of reasons, including concerns about loss of sovereignty, immigration, and regulations imposed by the EU. Some UK citizens felt that the country was not getting a fair deal from its membership in the EU and that Brussels was making too many decisions instead of London. 

Others felt that the EU was not adequately addressing issues such as the refugee crisis, terrorism, and the euro currency crisis. Ultimately, the decision to leave the EU reflected a growing discontent among some UK citizens with the direction and perceived priorities of the EU, and a desire for the UK to take back control of its own affairs.

Since July of 2016, the country has gone through three resignations within the past 6 years, with one prime minster lasting only 45 days.  

The severity of Britain's financial crisis was underscored when the International Monetary Fund, forecasted that Britain will be the world’s only major economy to contract in 2023, performing even worse than heavily blacklisted Russia. Adding to that non glorious news is the UK economy will shrink and that inflation will continue to increase the cost of living thus a drag on the UK citizens.

Striking workers attend a march, in London, Britain February 1, 2023. Courtesy of: Reuters

To pile onto these news bits of unsettling information, Britain’s National Health Service is dealing with overcrowded hospitals and long waits for ambulance services. On February 1st, Britain experienced a massive coordinated walkout, called ‘Walkout Wednesday’ from teachers, railway workers and civil servants walking off the job. The purpose of the walkout, increase in salaries. The UK public has grown frustrated with the government's lack of efforts to compromise on pay deals. In short, the UK public has had it!

Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. Courtesy of: New York Times

The current Prime Minster, Rishi Sunak, condemned the strikes. He didn’t hide the fact that the government holds a hard line against unions. Sunak says that bowing to the union demands will only contribute and worsen Britain’s inflation problem.

Staff wearing PPE equipment at the Royal Free Hospital, London. Courtesy of: Time

To be fair, Brexit has not been the main contributor to Britian’s problems. Like other countries around the world, Britain is slowly coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic nightmare and its economic impact.  Yes, you have inflation but also the high interest rates set by the Bank of England. Add in energy prices, exchange rates, trade relationships with other countries,  Government spending and budget deficits, one wonders how and when will the UK come back to something that resonates normal. 

The effects of Brexit run through Britain’s last-in-class economy because they also run through its divided, worn-out politics. 

A short note, ‘last-in-class economy' implies that Britain's economy is performing poorly compared to other economies and is ranked last among them. Moreover, it suggests that Britain's economy is at the bottom of the list regarding growth, development, and competitiveness.

The UK public is exasperated with its current government and the Labour Party that can’t come to terms to acknowledge the adverse effects of Brexit on the country's economy.

In a country dealing with the same energy shocks and inflation pressures that afflict the rest of Europe, Brexit is the dark thread that, to some critics, explains why Britain is suffering more than its neighbors.

Anand Menon. Courtesy of: Wikipedia

“One of the reasons for our current economic weakness is Brexit,” said Anand Menon, a professor of West European politics at King’s College London. “It’s not the main reason. But everything has become so politicized that the economic debate is carried out through political shibboleths.”

Jonathan Portes. Courtesy of: The Spector

Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics at King’s College London, was less than kind. He stated and I quote: “although we no longer have lunatics running the asylum, we have essentially a lame-duck government that doesn’t have any semblance of a plan to restore economic growth.’ End quote

Why did some United Kingdom voters, not want to leave Brexit?

Some UK voters opposed leaving the European Union for various reasons. Some felt that the EU had brought stability and prosperity to Europe and that the UK would be worse off outside the bloc. In addition, they believed that the EU was vital to maintaining good relations with other European countries and that leaving the EU would damage the UK's international standing and relationships.

Others were concerned about the economic impact of Brexit, including the potential loss of access to the EU's single market and the customs union. They felt that the economic benefits of membership, such as increased trade and investment, were worth preserving.

The impact of leaving Brexit has hit Britain in many ways. For example:

1.     Seasonal workers, that many farms relied on who would come from countries like Romania and Bulgaria for a few months to harvest vegetables, are now in short supply.

2.     Even if you could get your crops picked and packed for shipment, there was a lack of trained drivers, many of whom came from various parts of Europe. Even if they found drivers, COVID-19 kept people away and only worsened.

3.     Adding to the lack of trained drivers, which is around 90,000 to 120,000, the UK no longer has easy access to European drivers. In some cases, it takes up to nine months to qualify as a driver and cost for training is high.

4.     All of the above mention impacts the entire supply chain, so I think you get the picture.

There were also concerns about the future of Northern Ireland, which has a land border with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state. Some voters felt that leaving the EU would threaten the Good Friday Agreement, which established peace in Northern Ireland after decades of conflict, and potentially create a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

In short, many UK voters who opposed Brexit did so because they believed that it would have negative economic, political, and social consequences for the UK and its relationship with Europe and the world.

Currently, discussions are happening that perhaps leaving the EU was a knee-jerk reaction. Some question if Britain really conducted a deep analysis between the pros and cons of leaving the EU? 

Professor Menon thoughts on why the UK voted to leave the EU captures it. He said, and I quote: “Brexit wasn’t viewed through the lens of economics,” it was viewed through culture or values. Now everything is economic, and while you can sell Brexit many ways, selling it as a boost to G.D.P. is a stretch.” End quote

Currently, consensus points to getting back into the EU. Stung by inflation and bracing for tax increases, the country is in the midst of its gravest slump in a generation, leading many to wonder how much the split with the European Union is to blame.

Guess many in the UK are now looking at Brexit with ‘Bregret’

What can we learn from this story? What’s the take away

The United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union, commonly referred to as "Brexit," highlights the importance of considering the potential long-term consequences of political decisions, especially those related to international relations and trade. 

The process of negotiating and implementing Brexit has been complex and time-consuming, and has had significant impacts on the UK's economy and its relationship with EU member states. The experience serves as a reminder of the need for thorough and careful planning when making decisions with far-reaching implications.

I wish the British people luck.

Well, there you go. That's life, I swear.

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