Trump Redux: Europe's NATO Reckoning

6 min read

Time is a relentless force, and for Europe, the clock is ticking. Why you may ask. Imagine a world where the transatlantic bond is tested once again, where Europe must stand on its own watching the shifting global powers. Today we dive we into the pressing question: What happens if Donald Trump returns? Will Europe and NATO have to fend for themselves? The countdown regarding the future of European security has begun 

Welcome to That's Life, I Swear.  This podcast is about life's happenings in this world that conjure up such words as intriguing, frightening, life-changing, inspiring, and more. I'm Rick Barron your host. 

That said, here's the rest of this story  

The clamor of alarm bells reverberates through the halls of power, a discord of urgency warning of impending danger. In the wake of two bruising summit encounters with President Trump, Chancellor Angela Merkel's resounding declaration in 2017 echoed like a prophecy, and I quote, "We Europeans must seize our destiny, we must fight for our future alone." End quote. Yet, as Russia's ominous shadow loomed over Ukraine, Merkel's words remained unfulfilled. It was the grace of fate that spared Europe from Trump's erratic whims, allowing President Joe Biden's steady hand to intervene when chaos threatened to engulf the continent.

Trump pulling the rug on the world. Courtesy of: Financial Times

But today, as the specter of a second Trump presidency looms large, Europe finds itself teetering on the precipice once more. The whispers of anxiety echo from European capitals, each US opinion poll casting a shadow of dread over the continent. The lessons of 2016 are etched in memory; this time, there are no illusions of surprise, only the grim anticipation of a storm gathering on the horizon.

Trump's return promises a tempest far fiercer than before. Envision Donald’s White House stripped of principle, a landscape flawed by weakened safeguards and Republicans who will only bow to their new President, I mean dictator. The clock ticks relentlessly towards November 5, 2024, a mere six months away. Arancha González Laya, dean of the Paris School on International Affairs, says a call to arms rings clear, and I quote: "Europe must ready itself, whatever the future holds." End quote. 

She urges a deepening of the European single market, a fortification against the impending storm.

In Washington, chaos reigns supreme, the political landscape a volatile battleground of shifting allegiances. Even under a potential Biden victory, Europe must brace for a future where pro-European sentiment dwindles, eclipsed by the growing allure of China and the Indo-Pacific. The specter of NATO's demise casts a long shadow over European security, exacerbated by the resurgence of war on the continent.

In Berlin, the urgency is noticeable. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius issues a stark warning: Vladimir Putin's threats cannot be ignored. Europe must adapt, ready itself for a new geopolitical reality where American influence diminishes. The window of opportunity is narrow; time is of the essence.

As Congress callously withholds vital financial aid for Ukraine, a chilling query looms large: can Europe muster the courage to fill the void? It is imperative. Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary-general for defense investment now affiliated with the European Council on Foreign Relations, starkly emphasizes Europe's obligation to shoulder its fair share of the burden. "Urgent action is imperative," he asserts. "

Camille went on to say, “We must shed our lethargy and act strategically, seizing this moment to chart a decisive course of action. We have languished in indecision for far too long. It is time to confront the unsettling reality: What is our strategy to complement American military assistance for Ukraine? How do we fortify our conventional forces and bolster nuclear deterrence? These are existential questions demanding immediate answers, whether to brace ourselves for the possibility of a Trump resurgence or to fortify Biden's resolve to support Ukraine.

If that isn’t chilling enough, let this sober thought float around your head. 

On Jan. 21, 2020; a top European Union official revealed that Trump had told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a meeting that “NATO is dead” and “if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you.” The official, Thierry Breton, was present at the meeting. So much for transatlantic unity.

Putin thinking of attacking NATO? Courtesy of: Visit Ukraine

For Trump, the calculus is simple. Why should America bear the burden of Europe's defense against a Russian threat perceived differently across the Atlantic? The answer lies in the delicate balance of power, in the shared destiny of nations bound by history and forged in the fires of conflict.

Yet, as Europe grapples with its own shortcomings, Ukraine's plight remains dire. Fragmented defense industries falter in delivering vital support, leaving the nation vulnerable to aggression. Putin's economic warfare demands a unified response, a shift in focus from lucrative exports to fortifying Europe's defenses.

In the shadows of power, Trump and his America First zealots lurk, disdainful of global entanglements. But beware, for their aversion to international cooperation harbors a darkness that threatens the very fabric of security and unity.

As Poland's President Duda beckoned for "more U.S. in a united Europe," he gazed into the abyss, knowing Trump's disdain for such unity. 

Trump's convictions are forged in delusion, his mind ensnared by phantom debts and futile fury. NATO, a barricade against tyranny, stands imperiled by his reckless whims. The creaking of alliances echoes warnings as John Bolton, a specter from Trump's inner circle, foretells a chilling prophecy: the United States, abandoned from the very treaty it once upheld.

In the cold corridors of power, exiled voices cry out against the encroaching shadows. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a sentinel of defiance, implores against appeasement, her homeland swallowed by the insatiable appetite of Putin's Russia. Ukraine, besieged and beleaguered, stands as a sentinel of freedom against the gathering storm.

As the shadow of authoritarian coalitions looms large, the call for unity grows urgent. In the face of tyranny's advance, will the light of liberty prevail, or will the world succumb to the darkness that lurks within?  

The concept of a "dormant NATO" serves as a chilling wake-up call. With only six months remaining before the 2024 Presidential Election, Europe must rise to the challenge, lest it be consumed by the storm on the horizon.

Bear in mind what may be coming back to the White House, not as a President of the United States, but with a tone that rings ‘it can’t happen here’ but just might. Yes, a man who says he’ll be a dictator but for one day. You can laugh at the sarcasm, but he’s not. 

It can't happen here? Courtesy of: Democracy Docket

Donald Trump, while not officially labeled a dictator, increasingly exhibits traits akin to a sinister "dictator's apprentice," methodically employing authoritarian tactics that gnaw at the very foundations of American democracy. His assault on the press, the ominous purge of those investigating his alleged transgressions, and his unabashed nepotism in staffing the White House are but a few examples of his corrosive methodology.

In a chilling imitation of past and current dictators, Trump adopts the playbook of tyranny with disturbing enthusiasm. He’s no longer hiding who and what he is. His unsettling infatuation with military might, his self-loving fixation on his own cult of personality, and his systematic dissemination of deceit, weaving a web of falsehoods, all echo the darkest chapters of authoritarian rule. 

These methods, once foreign to the American political landscape, now stain its fabric, posing an unprecedented peril to the very essence of democracy. Some groups see Trumps tactics as a refreshing approach to making America great again. What they’re missing is the devil beneath the face.

Yet, the ramifications of Trump's apprenticeship extend far beyond the nation's borders, casting a dark cloud over global diplomacy. His grotesque adulation and emulation of despotic figures—be it Russia's Putin, Turkey's Erdogan, or the Philippines' Duterte—have metamorphosed American foreign policy into a grotesque endorsement of some of humanity's most reprehensible regimes. This alliance of convenience with the world's tyrants amplifies the ominous specter of authoritarianism, tarnishing the nation's moral compass and imperiling the principles of liberty worldwide.

Trump over leverages himself in every way possible. His personal wealth, his reputation, his brand, his political stability and political viability. The house of cards comes crashing down eventually but it won’t just fall on Trump. That said, think about what we already know about Trump and imagine what he will want to do, and that’s to finish what he started in his first term. Want to see him over leverage our country, not to mention his actions with our allies?

If he comes back our nation will be dragged through a chaotic road of mud, beyond what we thought possible.

So, here we are, now facing a potential alliance such as NATO, being tossed out the window, because a moron thinks a clean sweep of everything solves the problem, and presto, America is great again. 

What can we learn from this story? What's the takeaway?

“NATO is dead.”

That was a chilling prospect four years ago. Now that “war has returned to the European continent,” it is downright terrifying. If Ukraine falls to Russia, more European countries could follow. That’s why Europe needs to “start Trump-proofing.” 

 A second Trump presidency would and will produce a “destabilizing shock wave” across Europe.

 We’re at a potential historical point. Trump sees that Russia is a threat to Europe but not to the U.S., so why should America bear the brunt of containing it? Either Trump is just that stupid, or being the contractual man that he is his, there’s something in it for him.

Well, there you go, my friends; that's life, I swear

For further information regarding the material covered in this episode, I invite you to visit my website, which you can find on Apple Podcasts/iTunes, for show notes calling out key pieces of content mentioned and the episode transcript.

As always, I thank you for listening and your interest. 

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